Forget the Ely comment. It seems like Okafor is on his way back from his ankle injury sooner than I expected.

Btw, Stromile Swift blew up yesterday. OMG, he finally had a good game. I had itchy fingers but remembered my promise to hold off on picking up Swift until he had 3 straight good games.

Melvin Ely. It is time to pick him up in any leagues that play 2 centers. That is exactly what I did in one of my leagues yesterday. With Okafor out for an extended period of time, Ely is going to get a lot of playing time with Brezec as the 4 or 5. You should pick up Brezec too but Ely is more likely to be available because he has not had an outstanding game since the Okafor injury. I am here to tell you that it would be too late if you wait for that to happen. The reason that Ely has not gone crazy is because he is still overcoming the lingering effects of his injury. In his words, he was 85% for last night's game. In leagues where centers are rare, he will be gold for the next few weeks, at least until Okafor (who was on crutches) returns from his ankle injury.

As a side note, I just picked up Jalen Rose and dropped Ely this morning. This is not to say that I do not believe in Ely. Rose is rumoured to be heading for the Lakers and if he does, he should be good. I already have a very solid team and good centers and I just need Rose's stats more in case he does go to the Lakers.

Trading season has begun. The quarter season mark is usually the point when fantasy trading season officially starts. Earlier in the season, GMs are either still in love with their players and or are hesitant about trades because they do not want to be in a position where they will regret trading a player away. This is pure behavorial phsycology and rationally, it makes no sense. The quarter season mark is when this starts to fade for most GMs. GMs now have enough performance data to evaluate their own team needs as well as their players' performance this season as opposed to their draft position. So, make some inquiries. The obstinate GMs will give you a "Hell No" and will go down with the boat but you will likely find some GMs who would be willing to make some mutually beneficial trades.

Hell, I just dropped Stromile Swift again. Van Gundy just doesn't like the guy and refuses to play him. Although he deserves some of that for not making the most of his minutes, it is painfully clear that Swift will not be successful in Van Gundy's system, period. I will not pick him up again this season unless he gets traded or has 3 straight 30+ minute games in a row. Oh, as an afterthought, I picked up Al Jefferson to replace Swift. He's not doing great right now, mainly because he is stuck at 20 minutes a game but I still have hope that he will see his minutes creep up this season.

In my leagues, I had dropped Mourning for Al Jefferson a week ago. Well, dropping Mourning was right but Al Jefferson hasn't done squat. Luckily, I did not start him. I also managed to pick up Kaman (who is getting a ton of minutes and performing fairly well) as a backup center in the league where we only play one center. I would be surprised if he was available in a 2 center league though. Just tonight, I dropped Jefferson in one of my leagues for Stromile Swift after hearing that Yao was out with a toe injury.

Lo and behold, Van Gundy plays Mutombo 30 minutes. What the? He's like 50 years old. Van Gundy must have Mutombo mixed up with Mourning, Mount Mutombo's teammate in Georgetown. Hopefully, Van Gundy will stop smoking whatever he is smoking and play Swift instead and play a uptempo offense. Without Yao, his halfcourt style is not only boring but also useless because it is so predictable with only 1 scorer.

A. Kirilenko. What the heck is going on with him this season? His hustle stats over the last few games have been fine but what is killing his value this year is his %s. Even though his FG% is coming back recently, he still has the Shaq syndrome on the FT line. He is single handedly killing my team in the FT% cat. That being said, theoretically, he should improve as the year goes on since he is a 78% career shooter from the line. Teams, especially if you are going to tank the FT% cat, that are willing to take a risk should look to trading for him. Owners of AK will probably be willing to let him go for a second rounder. Me, I am holding on for a little while longer.

In my last post, I talked about people that play too many games early in the season and why that is a mistake. Here, I will talk about the correct implementation of starting more games. Lets put out some ground assumptions. Say, you have to start 10 (C,C, PF, SF, F, SG, PG, G, Util, Util) and you have 3 people on your bench. The below scenarios are the only times you should play more games early in the season.

1) Cardinal rule. Only start that 11th guy if he is as good as the 100th rated player on the player rater. Otherwise, you are making a big mistake. Usually I am even tighter on that and would not start the 11th guy unless he is just as good as my 10th starter and in addition, I need hist stats. If I am killing everyone on blocks, a 11th starter with a lot of value in blocks is not very useful. Player raters rule.

2) Center or any other weak spot that you have. Since center is usually a weak area for most teams, if you have a servicable 3rd center, you should fill the center spot (on daily leagues) whenever possible even if you are playing less games on the Util or PF slots. Make sure that your 3rd center is as good as the 100th ranked player though. This helps to reduce chaos if one of your centers go down with DNPs or injuries.

3) Injury prone player slots. If you have Baron Davis as your PG and 1 backup, it will probably make sense to be 10+ games on the PG slot by the middle of the season by rotating BD and the backup into the PG slot.

4) Breakout players that are only good for a few games. That usually occurs because of injuries to other players in their teams. They get a temporary boost in minutes and production for those games where they play like 60th ranked players. Examples are Luther Head, Mourning, S. Claxton, Jasikevicius, etc... Ride them.

Those are the main ones.

To start or not to start. In some of my roto leagues, there are some people that play a lot more games early in the season than the regular pace. They are a pain in the ass because they skew the rankings to their favor early in the season because of the extra games. I am in 11th place in one of my leagues because I have played a lot less games than most of the other GMs. I have heard the rationale for playing more games early in the season. They include making sure that they don't miss any games at the end of the season to being able to trade 2 for 1 later in the season since they do not have to start as many people later on. To me, that is hogwash. I have not seen anyone win a league by using this strategy. First, most people will play out all their games by the end of the season if they pay a little attention to their games played. As for the trading 2 for 1, they usually run into 2 problems. One is that it is self defeating (unless you have very very good players throughout your team) because even if you are able to trade up later on, the extra games that you start early on will be marginal players. Two, as for trading 2 for 1s, that is by itself hard to pull off unless you have very good players too. There, however, is one reason why you should play more games early in the season. I will go into that on my next post.

My first trade of the season. I just traded Ray Allen and TJ Ford for S. Marion and B. Knight in league #2. Allen has been doing great this season so far (the difference this season is the # of steals) and the same goes for Ford. Marion has been underperforming a little because he has been missing his 3pt shots. Knight is a throw in but should be useful nonetheless. It is a great trade-up for me since I don't need Allen at all. I am crushing the opposition in 3s and FT%s, two cats in which Allen excels (in addition to some assists) and trading into FG%, rebounds, and blocks.

This is a perfect time to sell high on Allen. While I am at it, I also think that this is a great time to sell high on a number of other players including AI, Pierce, Brand, Gerald Wallace, Jamison, and the injury prone duo, Camby and Webber if you can get a stud in return.

Building a Head 2 Head league team. I neglected to mention this prior to the draft. Roto league teams are a little different from H2H league teams because roto is cumulative throughout the season and H2H is week by week and opponent specific. While in roto leagues, most people prefer all around players (I actually do not have a preference), in H2H leagues, the 1 stat monster players (they still have to have a good player rating) are great to have on the bench. If you have all around 8-9 starters, specialists on the bench will allow you to customize you team so that you can beat your opponent for the week. You do not have to beat your opponent by a mile. In H2H leagues, this is the rifle approach vs. a shotgun approach. There is no magic bullet however. You need to analyze your opponent vs. your team on a weekly basis.

Dropped Stromile Swift for Luther Head in league #1. I still think that Swift will surplant Juwan Howard at some point but I have gotten sick of waiting for that to happen. Head, on the other hand is getting a lot of minutes with Alston out and shots with TMac out. He should hit a lot of 3s and my team could use some 3s in this league. Additionally, since I picked up Frye, I have less need for a backup high upside center. I really wanted to pick up Head in league #2 but I do not need 3s at all in league #2 since I am leading by a wide margin. I am still holding onto Wally Szcerbiak on my bench in league #2 and hoping that he will shoot out of his slump since he will continue to get minutes and is the #2 option for the Wolves.

Dropped Al Jefferson and picked up Channing Frye in league #1. Yes, I know that this would not be the first time that you heard of Frye. The fact is that he has been added and dropped in this league before. In most leagues, there will always be someone who adds and drops with alacrity. Some do it so others will have to waste a waiver priority when they drop him later. Not cool. Others just buy into the latest hot player. For me, I don't usually add/drop with wild abandon. Frye seems to have the ability (great %s and decent everything else) and he has been getting around 30 minutes a game. Jefferson has been going nowhere and since I need a backup center (Mourning is my center), Frye is a good hold and see. Just keep in mind that he plays in Larry Brown's system so nothing is guaranteed.

Changes to my money league teams since the season started. There are always a ton of changes to every roster in the first few weeks of the season. This happens for several reasons. Some teams need to patch up holes in their lineups and others chase the latest one-game wonders. My philosophy is that if you drafted well and barring injuries, you should not have more than 1-2 holes to fill. One of the biggest mistakes some people make is giving up on a player too early to pick up a one-game wonder. My best advice for pickups is to stop and think if the player's one game line is sustainable or not. The key to sustainability is minutes and ability. If a player is lacking either, the line is just a statistical anomoly. Here are some changes to my money leagues:

League 1:

1) Dropped J. Williams and picked up A. Mourning. I was watching the game when Shaq went down and I decided to pick up Mourning right away. Other managers were complaining, especially the one that drafted Shaq. Too bad. You snooze, you lose. J. Will has done better since Shaq got injured but his value will be limited as long as D. Wade is healthy. If you watch the Heats play, you should know this.

2) Dropped JR Smith and picked up L. Ridnour. JR was doing ok (not great) in the first few games. Then, he started losing minutes. He will never be an 8-cat guy so if he loses minutes, he’s toast. Hello L. Ridnour. His owner got fed up with his poor play. I snatched him up off the waivers with my top waiver priority. I’ll try to be patient with him.

Those are all my moves so far in this league. I have S. Swift, A. Jefferson, and A. Stoudemire sitting on my bench. I really need another center in case Shaq comes back. Swift is still learning the system and is only playing 20 minutes. I am being patient with A. Jefferson and will not drop him unless a real player (not the latest one-hit wonder) becomes available.

League # 2:

1) Dropped B. Knight and picked up TJ Ford. For some reason, Ford was not drafted so I picked him up once he cleared the waivers. I really like Knight and did not want to drop him. However, the decision should have been a no-brainer. Ford is a key component in his team and will get the minutes. Knight is a better per minute fantasy player but he is not guaranteed minutes.

2) Dropped L. Wright and picked up A. Mourning. Picked Mourning up in this league right after league #1. I am laughing to the bank. Btw, Wright totally stunk so far this season. No brainer. So far, I am loaded with good players in this league.

I have W. Szcerbiak, G. Wallace, and S. Dalembert on my bench. The center weakness seems to be a recurring theme. Hopefully, the rolling 2-week injury status on Dalembert becomes a solid 2-week number. Otherwise, I am praying to the fantasy gods that the Big Ankle stays grounded and A. Mourning plays like an animal, even though he has half a kidney. A 2-for-1 trade to land me a center may also work.

Here is the draft for my other money league. This is a 2 Center league. You will recognize a number of similarities between my two money leagues. I was picking 6th overall. Again, these were my thoughts during the draft and do not reflect events that happened later.

1) T. Duncan : I had a choice of TMac and Duncan. I chose Duncan because he is a Center and the fact that TMac was talking about knee problems during the preseason. My arms are hurting from the awkward angle that I must endure from patting myself on my back.
2) R. Allen : A lot of people were down on Death Ray this year with him falling to late second or even the 3rd round in some leagues. Wrong. Ray will get his stats and I needed a good FT shooter to offset Duncan.
3) P. Stojakovic : I was agonizing here because besides Peja, Bibby and Kidd was still available due to a rush to pick centers and big men in the early 3rd round. I chose Peja after a little thought. His upside is greater than the other 2. Kidd is overrated, especially since his minutes were supposed to be coming down. Bibby is a 2nd rounder at best. Peja, combined with Ray fully offset's Duncan's DT% woes.
4) C. Billips : Best PG available. He should really be a 3rd rounder with some upside since the Pistons were going to open up the offense with Flip. The negative was that I have too much 3s and FT% now.
5) J. Terry : A favorite of mine that I've mentioned in the past. Even more 3s now.
6) C. Webber : Not a Fav but he is in both my money leagues as my 6th pick. He was the best available big man with guaranteed minutes. Its a gamble but worth a shot.
7) D. Marshall : Undervalued big man. He will get 8-9 rebounds and some blocks. He also has a lot of 3s. It is looking like I will be trading either Allen or Peja someone in the season.
8) S. Dalembert : I really like him this year as I have mentioned in the past. I knew about his preseason injury but was not too concerned at the time. Now I am. He is also my second center.
9) E. Jones : Are you kidding me? Jones in the 9th. He's a Fav. A steal hands down, although not many people would have agreed with me before the season started.
10) W. Szczerbiak : He is the second scorer on the Wolves and will be starting this season. He was picked in the 6-8th rounds a few seasons ago.
11) L. Wright : Was going to be my backup center. With Swift gone, he was going to eat up the minutes. Well worth an 11th pick since he is a center.
12) B. Knight : See my other money league. Solid starter for at least 1/2 a season.
13) G. Wallace : A sleeper that is always injured. I took a longshot. I needed steals and blocks anyway and I could stomache his poor FT% with Allen, Peja, and Billips.

Update on the IL spot situation. There's been a rash of injuries the last 2 weeks. In one of my leagues, someone has both Dalembert, G. Hill, and Boozer on their bench because of injuries. He cannot put them on the IL anymore and they cannot cut them. Another guy has TMac and Shaq. What can they do? Nothing at all. That was why I recommended people to avoid drafting injury prone players this season.

I am in several leagues this season but only two of them are money leagues. I pay a little more attention to those money leagues because the competition is better. The following are my picks for the first league (I was picking eighth and the league plays 1 center only) and comments on each pick.
1) A. Kirilenko : If he was healthy last year, he would be top 5
2) E. Brand : Rock solid and dependable
3) R. Lewis : Played like a late 2nd rounder last year. Has some injury risks
4) L. Hughes : New system, new ballhog King, who knows. Risky, but if he plays like last year....
5) J. Terry : A favorite sleeper of mine. Coach says that he is the #2 scorer
6) C. Webber : Injury risk, AI risk...why the pick then? He is still a star and will play big minutes
7) D. Marshall : Another favorite. Steals, 3s, blks, rebounds...will get alot of those if he plays 30 mts
8) E. Jones : Dido. #2 scorer for the Grizs. I cannot believe how far he has fallen across all draft boards
9) A. Stoudemire : This was before the removal of the IL. See previous post.
10) J. Williams : My second PG. A question mark playing for the Heats.
11) S. Swift : My center. Has upside if he gets the minutes. With AK, I don't need a dominent center
12) B. Knight : May lose minutes as the season progresses but is good to start at least for 1/2 a season.
13) A. Jefferson: Upside pick.

The season is officially starting tonight and drafts are over for the most part. Now is the time to review your teams to assess strengths and weaknesses. I hope you enjoyed my pre-draft strategies. For the rest of the season, I will be focusing on day-to-day management and lineup strategies on this site as well as provide actual changes that I have made to my fantasy teams. My first tip of the season ... now is the time to look at your strenghts and weaknesses but not the time to ask for trades. For some reason or another, managers fall in love with their players and are less likely to accept sensible trades at this time of the year. Simply put, unless they are getting a great deal, making a trade forces them to admit that they made a mistake in the draft. They would rather let the player play into their draft positions or usefulness before looking to trade them. So don't pull your hair out trying if none of your trade offers get accepted. You should have better luck a little bit later in the season.

I was drafting on Yahoo last night after the removal of the IL slot and I realized one thing. I was no longer willing to draft the pure sleepers like Villanueva, Al Jefferson, Gerald Wallace, etc... in the 11th round because I needed at least one solid backup. This is just another way that the IL development will change fantasy b-ball. Also, in another Yahoo league, someone offered to trade Grant Hill (who is out 3-6 weeks) yesterday for a pretty cheap price (J.R. Smith). Oddly enough, I declined. I was not willing to have an injury prone player who is already out 3-6 weeks taking up a space on my bench. You had best avoid those injury-prone players during the draft rather than wondering what to do with them once they go down.